Solar activity summary (Last 24 hours)

15th January

Solar activity was moderate. Recently departed Region 2257 (N07, L=322)
produced an M2 (R1-Minor) flare at 14/1258 UTC. The region continued to
produce several C-class flares as it rotated off the west limb including
a C2 long duration event at 15/0334 UTC. Region 2259 (S15W20,
Esc/beta-delta) showed development in its trailer spots as well as
gaining a weak magnetic delta in the new spots. However, the region only
produced a lone C2 flare at 14/1826 UTC. All of the other regions on the
disk were either stable or in decay.

Other activity included a filament eruption observed at about 15/0338
UTC in the NE quadrant of the disk. The 6 degree long, east-west
oriented filament erupted along a channel centered near N16E15. SDO/AIA
304 imagery observed material movement across the disk in a NE
direction. Limited SOHO/LASCO C2 imagery observed a slow-moving CME
lifting off the NE limb, first visible at 15/0424 UTC. Further analysis
will be conducted as additional imagery becomes available.

.Forecast…
Solar activity is expected to remain low with a chance for M-class
flares (R1-R2, Minor-Moderate) for the next three days (15-17 Jan).

9th Jan

Solar activity remained low. Region 2257 (N07W29, Dki/beta) produced the
largest event of the period, a C9/1n at 09/0817 UTC. Newly numbered
active group near N09E11 was numbered as Region 2260 as a Dao/beta
group. All other active regions were largely inactive and unremarkable.
No Earth-directed CMEs were observed during the period.

.Forecast…
Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for an M-class flare
(R1-R2/Minor-Moderate) with a slight chance for an X-class flare
(R3-Strong) mainly from Regions 2253, 2257, and 2259 during the
next three days (09-11 Jan).

4th January

Solar activity returned to low levels. By 04/0800 UTC, Region 2253
(Ekc/beta-gamma) had produced six C flares, the largest a C2/Sf at
04/0452 UTC. The region grew slightly and exhibited some shearing but
appears to have lost the delta configuration. The remaining regions were
mostly stable. No Earth-directed CMEs were noted in the available
imagery.

.Forecast…
Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for another M-class
(R1-R2, Minor-Moderate) flare from Region 2253 during the next three
days (04-06 Jan) and a slight chance for an X-class (R3, Strong) flare.

1st January

Solar activity continued at low levels with Region 2253 (S07E41,
Dkc/beta-gamma) contributing to the majority of the low level C-class
flaring. The largest, a pair of C2/Sf flares, were observed at 01/0507
UTC and 01/0730 UTC from Region 2253. Region 2251 (S13W03,
Dao/beta-gamma) was also responsible for an isolated C1 flare at 31/1216
UTC. Region 2253 continued to exhibit moderate growth and
consolidation. The rest of the spotted regions were either stable or in
decay.

At approximately 31/1454 UTC, a filament eruption was observed in
SDO/AIA 304 imagery near N20 in the central region. At 31/1700 UTC,
faint ejecta could be seen exiting the NW region in SOHO/LASCO C2
imagery. Further analysis is in progress to determine if there is a
geoeffective component.

.Forecast…
Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class
(R1-R2/Minor-Moderate) flares for the forecast period (01-03 Jan).

31st December

Solar activity remained at low levels. Regions 2250 (N10W87, Hrx/alpha),
2251 (S14E12, Dai/beta) and 2253 (S07E55, Eac/beta-gamma) all produced
low level C-class flares. The other regions on the disk were relatively
quiet and stable. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed.

.Forecast…
Solar activity is likely to be low with a slight chance for M-class
(R1-R2/Minor-Moderate) flares on days one through three (31 Dec – 02
Jan).

30th December

Solar activity remained at low levels, with a lone C2/Sf flare from
Region 2251 (S09E25, Dac/beta-gamma). The region showed penumbral
development in its intermediate and trailer spots. The other regions on
the disk were relatively quiet and stable. No CMEs were observed today
on the Sun-Earth line.

.Forecast…
Solar activity is likely to be low with a slight chance for M-class
(R1-R2/Minor-Moderate) flares on days one through three (30 Dec – 01
Jan).

20th December

Solar activity reached high levels during the period as Region 2242
(S18W36, Ekc/beta-gamma-delta) produced an X1/3b flare at 20/0028 UTC.
Associated with this event was a Type II radio sweep (900 km/s), 2300
sfu Tenflare, and a coronal mass ejection (CME) directed off the SW
limb. We are currently waiting on further SOHO/LASCO coronagraph
imagery to determine if there is an Earth-directed component to the CME.

Penumbral area within the intermediate area of Region 2242 appeared to
be separating which separated the delta regions within the group.
Region 2241 (S10W13, Ekc/beta-gamma-delta) was relatively stable and
quiet over the period, however it retains a transverse delta within its
trailing spots. Flux emergence and growth was observed in new Region
2244 (S05E45, Cao/beta). The rest of the spotted regions were either
stable or in decay.

.Forecast…
Solar activity is expected to be at moderate (R1-R2/Minor-Moderate)
levels with a chance for further X-class flaring (R3-Strong or greater)
for the next three days (20-22 Dec) as Regions 2241 and 2242 remain
large and magnetically complex.

13th December

Solar activity reached moderate levels today as a region just rotating
around the SE limb near S05 produced an impulsive M1 flare at 13/0520
UTC. Multiple C-class flaring was also observed originating from
Regions 2227 (S04W65, Hsx/alpha), 2234 (N04W20, Dao/beta), 2236 (N30E55,
Dao/beta), and 2237 (S15E48, Eso/beta). Slight growth was observed in
the intermediate area of Region 2230 (S15W25, Dac/beta) and new flux
emergence was observed around the leader and trailing spots of Region
2237. The rest of the numbered regions were either stable or in decay.
No Earth-directed coronal mass ejections were observed.

.Forecast…
Solar activity is expected to remain at low levels with a chance for
further M-class (R1-R2/minor-moderate) activity for the forecast period
(13-15 Dec).

12th December

Solar activity was at low levels. Only low level C-class flares were
produced by Regions 2230 (S15W12, Dac/beta-gamma), 2234 (N04W05,
Dai/beta-gamma), and 2235 (S08E42, Hax/alpha). Slight growth was
observed in the intermediate area of both Regions 2230 and 2234. New
Region 2237 (S14E58, Dao/beta) was numbered during the period.

An approximate 30 degree filament eruption centered near N20 in the NE
quadrant was observed beginning at 12/0258 UTC. A long duration C1
flare was observed at 12/0457 UTC associated with this event. An
associated coronal mass ejection was observed in SOHO/LASCO C2 imagery
at 12/0548 UTC off the NE limb. Analysis of this event is in progress
as further imagery becomes available.

.Forecast…
Solar activity is expected to remain at low levels with a chance for an
M-class (R1-R2/minor-moderate) flare for the forecast period (12-14
Dec). Regions 2230 and 2234 are the most likely sources for any
significant flare activity.

10th December

.24 hr Summary…
Solar activity continued at low levels (below R1-minor). Region 2230
(S15E15, Dai/beta-gamma) continued to grow and produced most of the
C-class activity during the period. The largest event from this region
was an impulsive C6 flare at 09/1528 UTC. There was some flux emergence
in the northern portion of Region 2227 (S03W27, Cao/beta). New flux
emergence was also noted near N04E24 and is being monitored for possible
numbering. Another region, probably the return of old Region 2209, was
rotating onto the visible disk near S08E70 and had produced a C1 flare
at 10/0924 UTC. A CME was observed erupting from the west limb around
09/1325 UTC in SOHO/LASCO C2 imagery, but was not Earth-directed. No
other significant eruptions were observed.

.Forecast…
Solar activity is expected to remain at low levels. A slight chance for
an M-class (R1-R2/minor-moderate) flare is possible during the period
(10-12 Dec). Region 2230 and the return of old Region 2209 (S15,L=248),
which has starting making the way around east limb, on day one (10 Dec)
will be the most likely sources for any significant activity.