Daily Aurora Forecast

19th October

Level 1 – Quiet

Forecast:
Auroral activity will be at quiet levels. Weather permitting, aurora displays may be visible overhead or on the horizon in Tromsø (Norway) and Utsjoki (Finland).

Comments:
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels for days one and two (19 – 20 Oct), increasing to quiet to unsettled levels with a chance for active conditions (kp4) on day three (21 Oct) due to CH HSS effects.

18th October

Level 1 – Quiet

Forecast:
Auroral activity will be at quiet levels. Weather permitting, aurora displays may be visible overhead or on the horizon in Tromsø (Norway) and Utsjoki (Finland).

Comments:
Geomagnetic activity has returned to quiet levels.

17th October

Tonight’s estimated aurora level:

Level 2 – Low

Forecast:
Auroral activity will be at low levels. Weather permitting, aurora displays may be visible overhead or on the horizon in Bodø (Norway), Sodankylä (Finland), Kiruna (Sweden) and Reykjavík (Iceland).

Comments:

CME event was weak or missed earth. So we are left with weaking CH HSS affects. Not much aurora asctivity expected.

16th October

Tonight’s estimated aurora level:

Level 4 – High

Forecast:
Auroral activity will be at high levels. Weather permitting, aurora displays will be visible overhead or on the horizon in Trondheim (Norway), Vaasa (Finland), Sundsvall (Sweden) and Faeroe Islands.

Comments:
CME from 13th Ocotber is due to arrive after 1800 UTC. It is only a weak-modest CME, but coupled with the activity we currently have from CH HSS, it has the potential to put on a nice aurora show.

15th October

Tonight’s estimated aurora level:

Level 3 – Medium

Forecast:
Auroral activity will be at medium levels. Weather permitting, aurora displays will be visible overhead or on the horizon in Mosjøen (Norway), Oulu (Finland), Luleå (Sweden) and Reykjavík (Iceland).

Comments:
At the moment we are relying on CH HSS stream, it is showing signs of weakening, but the affects from the 13th Oct M1.7 flare could arrive as early as tonight, so this could all change in a moments notice. Enhanced solar wind speed and IMF variability are expected to persist for the next three days (15-17 Oct) with a combination of CH HSS and CME effects.

14th October

Tonight’s estimated aurora level:

Level 3 – Medium

Forecast:
Auroral activity will be at medium levels. Weather permitting, aurora displays will be visible overhead or on the horizon in Mosjøen (Norway), Oulu (Finland), Luleå (Sweden) and Reykjavík (Iceland).

Comments:
CH HSS is flowing well and a couple of CME’s are due to arrive in the next 24 hours. It is difficult to get a good prediction on this occasion with so many events overlapping. It could be awesome, or it could be average. If you use our aurora alerts we will text you when it is Kp4+, otherwise monitor the forecast page for any activity as and when it happens.

13th October

Tonight’s estimated aurora level:

Level 1 – Quiet

Forecast:
Auroral activity will be at quiet levels. Weather permitting, aurora displays may be visible overhead or on the horizon in Tromsø (Norway) and Utsjoki (Finland).

Comments:
Solar wind conditions are expected to remain consistent with nominal background conditions through 14 Oct. On 15 Oct, enhanced solar wind speeds are expected with the arrival of a positive polarity coronal hole high speed stream coupled with the possible weak effects from a CME observed late on 11 Oct.

12th October

Tonight’s estimated aurora level:

Level 2 – Low

Forecast:
Auroral activity will be at low levels. Weather permitting, aurora displays may be visible overhead or on the horizon in Bodø (Norway), Sodankylä (Finland), Kiruna (Sweden) and Reykjavík (Iceland).

Comments:
Solar winds are expected to continue at nominal levels until late on Oct 14 when a trans-equatorial positive polarity coronal hole high speed stream is expected to cause an enhancement to solar wind speed.

11th October

Tonight’s estimated aurora level:

Level 3 – Medium

Forecast:
Auroral activity will be at medium levels. Weather permitting, aurora displays will be visible overhead or on the horizon in Mosjøen (Norway), Oulu (Finland), Luleå (Sweden) and Reykjavik (Iceland).

Comments:
A recurrent negative-polarity coronal hole high-speed stream (CH HSS) is expected to increase solar wind speed and IMF parameters beginning on Oct 11 and continuing through Oct 12.

10th October

Tonight’s estimated aurora level:

Level 2 – Low

Forecast:
Auroral activity will be at low levels. Weather permitting, aurora displays may be visible overhead or on the horizon in Bodø (Norway), Sodankylä (Finland), Kiruna (Sweden) and Reykjavik (Iceland).

Comments:
CME event over, back to nominal levels. A CH HSS should become geoeffective tomorrow so it’s not so bad.