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29th October

Tonight’s estimated aurora level:

Level 3 – Medium

Forecast:
Auroral activity will be at medium levels. Weather permitting, aurora displays will be visible overhead or on the horizon in Mosjøen (Norway), Oulu (Finland), Luleå (Sweden) and Reykjavík (Iceland).

Comments:
Last night, yet another G1 predicted event went missing, it did eventually turn up this morning, but so far has been weaker than anticipated and barely reached Kp3, but at least it moved us off Kp0! Not sure quite why NOAA SWPC and NASA are getting these so wrong recently. But hey ho. We will keep reporting in case they get one right. Tonight could be a mixed bag, because there have been so many CME’s and flares recently, we could be hit with one quite late, one quite early, or by one not even forecasted. But I don’t think we will see more than Kp3 tonight, the way things have been going lately.

28th October

Tonight’s estimated aurora level:

Level 5 – G1 Minor Solar Storm

Forecast:
Auroral activity will be at G1 Storm levels! Weather permitting, aurora displays will be visible overhead or on the horizon in Oslo (Norway), Turku (Finland), Stockholm (Sweden) and Thurso (Scotland).

Comments:
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at predominately quiet to unsettled levels early on day one (28 Oct) changing to unsettled to active conditions with isolated minor storm intervals (NOAA Scale G1-Minor) when the ejecta from the 24 October M9 flare and 25 October X-class events arrive.

Quiet to active conditions are expected with a chance for isolated minor storm periods on day two (29 Oct) with the arrival of the CME associated with the M3/Sf flare observed on 26 Oct.

Conditions on day three (30 Oct) are expected to return to mostly quiet levels, however there is a chance for passage of ejecta from today’s X1 event. Consequently, the disturbed conditions may extend into day three.

27th October

Level 1 – Quiet

Forecast:
Auroral activity will be at quiet levels. Weather permitting, aurora displays may be visible overhead or on the horizon in Tromsø (Norway) and Utsjoki (Finland).

Comments:
Calm before the storm? Tomorrow is predicted to reach Kp4 with maybe brief G1/Kp5 spells due to ejecta from the M9 flare a couple days ago, plus some slight residual impact from the X class flare. I think this is much more likely than the previous Kp5 alert that was a dud a couple days ago. So tonight is expected to remain pretty quiet until the events of tomorrow unfold. All eyes are on this event. Surely the SWPC and NASA can’t get another event so wrong?

26th October

Tonight’s estimated aurora level:

Level 2 – Low (with a chance of Kp4)

Forecast:
Auroral activity will be at low levels. Weather permitting, aurora displays may be visible overhead or on the horizon in Bodø (Norway), Sodankylä (Finland), Kiruna (Sweden) and Reykjavík (Iceland).

Comments:
With the disappointment of many CME’s missing recently, we don’t hold out much hope for the other one which is due to arrive today. We are not going to complain about NOAA SWPC or NASA because they do a really great job, but for whatever reason their computer models have been way off recently. So really, your best bet is just to enjoy your weekend, sign up to our text alerts, and we will text you if there is any significant activity!

25th October

Tonight’s estimated aurora level:

Level 4 – High (with chance of G1 storm levels)

Forecast:
Auroral activity will be at high levels. Weather permitting, aurora displays will be visible overhead or on the horizon in Trondheim (Norway), Vaasa (Finland), Sundsvall (Sweden) and Faeroe Islands.

Comments:
CME’s that were due to arrive around midnight last night are late. It is probably a good thing for European aurora watchers as now the CME’s are expected to arrive this evening when the auroral oval will be in a more favourable position. Although they can arrive any moment really, computer models predicting their arrival are not right too often. The prediction is still that they could spark G1 storms, but until they arrive we just don’t know. 3 cme’s arriving at the same time is pretty rare.

24th October

Tonight’s estimated aurora level:

Level 3 – Medium (with potential for level 5)

Forecast:

Auroral activity will be at medium levels. Weather permitting, aurora displays will be visible overhead or on the horizon in Mosjøen (Norway), Oulu (Finland), Luleå (Sweden) and Reykjavik (Iceland).

Comments:

The geomagnetic field is expected to be at predominantly quiet levels through midday on day one (24 Oct), before the anticipated onset of effects from three glancing blow CMEs observed leaving the Sun between 20 and 22 Oct. Initial geomagnetic impacts of the transients are expected to be in the form of unsettled conditions late on day one with an increase to conditions as high as minor storm (Kp5/NOAA Scale G1-Minor) in the early hours on day two (25 Oct). A recovery to unsettled levels, with possible isolated active conditions, can be expected for day three (26 Oct) as conditions wane prior to the arrival of the fourth CME of the past few days, which is expected to also be weak and arrive outside of the forecast period.

23rd October

Tonight’s estimated aurora level:

Level 2 – Low

Forecast:
Auroral activity will be at low levels. Weather permitting, aurora displays may be visible overhead or on the horizon in Bodø (Norway), Sodankylä (Finland), Kiruna (Sweden) and Reykjavík (Iceland).

Comments:
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at predominantly quiet levels for the remainder of day one (23 Oct) and the first half of day two (24 Oct), before the anticipated arrival of three of the CMEs. Initial geomagnetic impacts of the transients are expected to be in the form of unsettled conditions late on day two and increase to conditions as high as active (less than NOAA Scale G1 (Minor)) in the early periods on day three (25 Oct.)

 

22nd October

Tonight’s estimated aurora level:

Level 1 – Quiet

Forecast:
Auroral activity will be at quiet levels. Weather permitting, aurora displays may be visible overhead or on the horizon in Tromsø (Norway) and Utsjoki (Finland).

Comments:
The CH HSS is/was much weaker than predicted. So aurora activity will be quiet. There are two CME’s from 20 Oct that will brush past earth possible as early as tomorrow. So these events might spark auroras in Northern latitudes 65°N and above. But they are predicted to be quite weak. So for the rest of us 65° and below, we will have to wait for something more significant for an aurora show.

21st October

Tonight’s estimated aurora level:

Level 2 – Low

Forecast:
Auroral activity will be at low levels. Weather permitting, aurora displays may be visible overhead or on the horizon in Bodø (Norway), Sodankylä (Finland), Kiruna (Sweden) and Reykjavík (Iceland).

Comments:
CH HSS has been very weak so far, but is expected to increase today. There is also the possibilty of a faint CME brushing past earth while the CH HSS is active. More analysis is needed on that event.

20th October

Tonight’s estimated aurora level:

Level 2 – Low

Forecast:
Auroral activity will be at low levels. Weather permitting, aurora displays may be visible overhead or on the horizon in Bodø (Norway), Sodankylä (Finland), Kiruna (Sweden) and Reykjavík (Iceland).

Comments:
We should start to see the affects from a weak CH HSS late tonight. But for the most part, solar wind speed is expected to remain at nominal values. Solar wind will become slightly enhanced tomorrow and day after tomorrow (21 – 22 Oct) with weak CH HSS influence, which may spark nice shows in the far north (65°N+).