Aurora Forecast


Hourly Aurora Forecast

Using real-time solar wind data from Nasa’s ACE spacecraft, matched with some computer modelling, we are able to display with reasonable accuracy, how the aurora will behave up to one hour in advance.
Image should be used as a guide only. Aurora may be seen slightly higher or lower than the image shows on any given night.

Right now, the aurora is predicted to be: Kp 1.33

In 0 hour and 18 minutes, the aurora is predicted to be kp 0.33
In 0 hour and 29 minutes, the aurora is predicted to be kp 0.33
In 0 hour and 44 minutes, the aurora is predicted to be kp 0.67

What do Kp numbers mean?

System status: aurora forecast status All good.


3 Day Aurora Forecast

Here are the predicted Kp numbers for the next 3 days. They can change at any time due to solar events, so you should check them at least once a day.

Time now in UTC (Universal Time) is:
09:19 Nov 01st

Nov 01 Nov 02 Nov 03
00-03UT 2 2 2
03-06UT 2 2 2
06-09UT 3 3 3
09-12UT 3 3 3
12-15UT 2 2 1
15-18UT 1 1 1
18-21UT 2 1 2
21-00UT 2 2 2

Why do we use UTC?
UTC (Universal Time Co-ordinated) is used in science, weather, aviation, military and many other fields. It eliminates confusion with multiple time zones and daylight saving. Once you find out the time difference between UTC and your own time zone, it is easy to read universal times. Click here to see what UTC is right now in North American time zones. For more information on UTC click here


Real time solar wind, aurora and geomagnetic data

Solar Wind Gauges

These gauges are our own system, they are updated every 60 seconds directly from Nasa’s ACE spacecraft data. The data you see here is what the ACE spacecraft monitored only moments ago. It is the very latest live solar wind data available. These 3 components are the most important components of the solar wind (that we as aurora watchers are interested in). You can view all the components of the solar wind on our other solar wind tool here.

Gauges are updated every minute live (without the need for page refresh).

How to interpret the gauge activity
Aurora Borealis activity gauge information green Aurora Borealis activity gauge information green Aurora Borealis activity gauge information green Aurora Borealis activity gauge information green

SWPC Solar Wind Dials
Dials are updated every 5 minutes
with data averaged over last 15 minutes.
More info.


Real time solar wind tool (*NEW*)

click to launch

Aurora Ovation Oval
(short term prediction)

Auroral Map
(last recorded aurora strength)
CME Forecast
NOAA CME Prediction Forecast (*NEW*)

click to launch
CME Forecast
NASA CME Prediction Forecast (*NEW*)

click to launch

Real Time Solar WindACE Real Time Solar Wind MAG & SWEPAM data

 

MagnetometerMagnetometer located in Newport, Washington 48°N


What Kp strength do you need to view aurora where you are?


To see the Northern Lights in the lower parts of Southern Canada you generally need Kp3+ levels. For the Northern USA states (excluding Alaska), you would usually need a geomagnetic storm for Northern Lights to be visible. Anything above (and including) Kp5 level is classed as a geomagnetic storm, so this is usually the golden number we all wish to see. Even if you are quite far north and have auroras at much lower kp numbers, a geomagnetic storm will turn the usual good aurora shows into amazing aurora shows.

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