24th October

Tonight’s estimated aurora level:

Level 3 – Medium (with potential for level 5)

Forecast:

Auroral activity will be at medium levels. Weather permitting, aurora displays will be visible overhead or on the horizon in Mosjøen (Norway), Oulu (Finland), Luleå (Sweden) and Reykjavik (Iceland).

Comments:

The geomagnetic field is expected to be at predominantly quiet levels through midday on day one (24 Oct), before the anticipated onset of effects from three glancing blow CMEs observed leaving the Sun between 20 and 22 Oct. Initial geomagnetic impacts of the transients are expected to be in the form of unsettled conditions late on day one with an increase to conditions as high as minor storm (Kp5/NOAA Scale G1-Minor) in the early hours on day two (25 Oct). A recovery to unsettled levels, with possible isolated active conditions, can be expected for day three (26 Oct) as conditions wane prior to the arrival of the fourth CME of the past few days, which is expected to also be weak and arrive outside of the forecast period.

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